Fatal Push is a Trap for Jund


It's hard to find a current jund list that runs 4x bolt and no fatal push. And that makes sense, right? Push just solves soooo many problems that bolt doesn't. I mean, it can kill a goyf 24/7, it can kill death's shadow all day, and even take out Kalitas when revolt is active!

That's a lot of value, isn't it?

And what do we give up by taking out bolts? Not much. Bolt only kills like, 95% of what push does, and it closes out tight games off the top, and it takes out planeswalkers, and you can play it for full value at end of turn even if your opponent has nothing on the board.

Small price to pay to fit the "best removal spell in modern" into the jund main deck, right?

Have you caught the sarcasm yet?

Jund didn't have a removal problem before push was printed. Abzan did. Path is a removal spell that ramps your opponent, which is a dangerous line for BGx midrange decks to play, or at least Reid Duke thought so not too long ago. But what does he know? He only has like, more top 8s at professional level events than I can count.

Fatal gave junk's removal suite a big...wait for it...push in the right direction. But even with lingering souls, BGW can only dream of having the reach that bolt provides.

Some jund pilots might argue, "But bolt isn't good in the current meta, it doesn't kill enough of the threats you're most likely to face."

But where is the evidence that you actually gain value by running push in this meta? Let's just take a gander at the top 8 decks on mtggoldfish right now:

  1. Eldrazi Tron: Push kills Thought-knot Seer when revolt is on. But we lose the ability to snipe Karn down from ultimate range (or just fry him completely). Hardly a huge upgrade.
  2. Titanshift: Nothing that push does here that bolt can't. Also worth noting: push is a blank because of sakura-tribe elder's self-sacrifice ability. And double bolt will drop Prime Time, but double push isn't a thing.
  3. Storm: Even the legendary 3-toughness Baral falls to our mighty bolt.
  4. Grixis Death's Shadow: We gotta give credit where it's due, because push is an all-star against death's shadow. Bolt even has the complication of growing the opponent's shadows if you aim it at their face. Of course, the real superstar in this match-up is terminate, because it kills everything they play if you can dodge stubborn denial.
  5. Burn: Push will very occasionally kill a pumped up Swiftspear that bolt can't. Hardly an advantage.
  6. Abzan: It feels good to push their goyfs and rhinos, but it feels bad to draw push when you're staring down the barrel of their lili of the veil. Not to mention that a single lingering souls makes enough spirits to require an entire playset of pushes, but bolt can just soar right past those flyers and close the match out. And again, we've always had terminate to clean up the big bad guys. Really, the question here is: better survivability (push) or late-game closers (bolt)?
  7. Affinity: No gains with push here either.
  8. UW Control: It's actually almost painful how bad push is in this matchup compared to bolt. You can never push a gideon, but you can bolt one on your turn, or in response to their ability activations. What's that? You're making your gideon of the trials a 4/4 indestructible? I'll just bolt it while that's on the stack...
So out of the 8 most popular decks (each roughly 6% of the meta or less), push definitely improves jund in 1 matchup (shadow), and could be argued to slightly improve 2 others (eldrazi tron and abzan). Meanwhile, it definitely worsens jund in 1 matchup (UW control), and could be argued to slightly worsen 2 others (Titanshift and abzan). Since abzan falls on both sides of the spectrum, let's just eliminate it for now.

That makes push vs. bolt even when looking at the top 8 decks. Two matchups improved over bolt, and two made worse. But what about the rest of the field? The top 8 decks comprise only about 42% of what you'll encounter. The rest of the time you're gonna face contenders like Eldrazi Taxes, Jeskai tempo, Ad Nauseam, Lantern, CoCo, and so on. Does push sound particularly well positioned against any of those decks in a way that bolt isn't? I rest my case.

Jund pilots should have a playset of bolts in their main deck, even in this meta, and push is worth little more than a single flex slot, in my opinion.

If we get to a point where nearly every creature in the meta is within push's range, I could be persuaded to drop terminates for pushes. But bolts for pushes? No way.

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