The Future of Midrange and Modern
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| Art Credit: WotC and Howard Lyon |
Midrange isn't doing so hot in modern right now. The most successful midrange deck in the format is Mardu Pyromancer, and though it performed admirably over the last month or so, it was utterly stomped at the 25th Anniversary Pro-Tour just recently.
I struggle to even call Mardu a midrange deck, to be honest. It is so grindy and gives up so much of its speed to stay in the game that it verges on what you might call "non-U control".
The talk of the town at PT25A were decks that took strong stances as either combo, aggro, or control. Anything trying to be a mix of one thing or the other was sorely disadvantaged, at least in their pre-sideboard games.
It seems perhaps, that this is the necessary, if unavoidable, progression of modern. In my estimation (and many a redditor's much more fatalistic estimation), the format revolves around Tron, and as it revolves it gets closer and closer to an end point where decks that are disadvantaged against Karn, Wurmcoil, and the Urza lands will slowly be pushed out of playability.
I don't think that's a completely terrible thing, because having "boarders" to the modern format canvas, so to speak, helps brewers and grinders set a scope for their creative boundaries.
I think one of the archetypes that has metamorphosed in response to Tron's continued impact on the meta is control. UW control is the dominant control archetype now, when for as long as I can remember, Jeskai was considered a mile better. The cutesy tempo plays of Jeskai are good against spell combos and fish decks, but struggle against inevitable strategies and superior tempo plays. Well, superior tempo plays are what aggro and combo are all about now. Control is becoming more like Tron, slamming unbeatable card after unbeatable card until the opponent is out of options. Cryptic Command, Supreme Verdict, Brainstorm into miracle Terminus, these are the kings of control value now. Snapcaster is cute, but it isn't enough anymore.
And still, that new RB Vengevine deck can put three 2/2 zombies on the board on turn 1. How can you count on turn 4 supreme verdict if you are going to take 18 damage before it resolves assuming the opponent plays no more spells?
Okay, let's work Jund into this conversation...
One Jund card that is really well positioned in the new combo meta is Tarmogoyf. Hollow One and Vengevine struggle to get through him (unless Hollow One gets a flawless turn 2 Gurmag Angler to shrink Goyf down), and he comes down with no fuss or muss on turn 2 every time.
But Liliana of the Veil? Queen of Jund? Not so well positioned. A lot of the combo decks will thank you for using her +1, and laugh in your face as you try to squeeze value out of her -2.
Not good. I think you'll find that all of Jund's attrition cards are performing rather poorly right now. They don't help against Hollow One, Vengevine, KCI, Tron, and to a large extent, Humans.
But the most aggressive cards, Goyf, Bolt, and I would put Bob in this category too, are over performing as compared to previous metas.
But speaking of previous metas, there was a deck from a year+ past meta that used some of the aggressive Jund cards that are currently well positioned, among other fast and powerful cards. A deck designed to stomp on resilient combo decks and decks that blow all their tempo early (like the ones currently running rampant in modern).
That deck is Death's Shadow
Death's Shadow, the hot new (back then) midrange deck that classic Junders like myself did not want to take seriously. Especially considering Jund was favored against it much of the time. But in the last year, some of the best brewers and grinders have run Death's Shadow through the trenches and come back with some excellent decks and even more excellent records. (Seriously, look at these win percentages from Magnus Lantto.)
What originated as modern's new attempt at zoo, and then at turbo xerox, has become much more akin to a powerful new archetype. If Jund, Abzan, and Mardu are the spectrum of midrange control, then the various Death's Shadow builds make up their complement: midrange aggro/tempo.
Jund turns the dials of its major facets to something like this:
Hand disruption: 6/10
Spot removal: 8/10
Cheap threats: 6/10
Deck velocity: 4/10
Staying power: 8/10
This balance gives classic Jund legs against almost everything, but you'd be hard pressed to say it is strongly advantaged against anything. Death's Shadow, on the other hand, is more like this:
Hand disruption: 6/10
Spot removal: 4/10
Cheap threats: 9/10
Deck velocity: 8/10
Staying power: 4/10
It gives up the most in spot removal and staying power (which overlap a lot on a certain level), to gain velocity and overall power. This makes it advantaged against virtually all uninteractive decks, without giving up too much against the interactive ones due to its speed.
Traverse Shadow
Here is the Traverse Shadow list I ran at a small (38ish people) tournament yesterday:
Before I do a tournament report, I want to talk about my deck choice.
18 lands (some decks play 17) is significantly fewer than classic Jund, which now plays 24 or 25 with equal popularity. Fewer lands means a higher chance to be mana screwed, but also means a lower chance to brick on a much-needed draw. These turbo-xerox influence in the deck (the cantrips and traverse) actually helps minimize the occurrence of mana screw without sacrificing the ability to draw gas. They also add velocity in the early game, where Shadow tries to generate as much value as it can.
Traverse gives the deck virtually heightened threat density, particularly in pre-sideboard games where grave hate is minimal. This is key to pulling out the ever more important game 1 wins. It fixes hands that are light on mana even through graveyard hate, which means that it actually retains value in post-sideboarded games, which tend to be much grindier. I want that forth land in games 2 and 3 way more than I wanted it in game 1.
Jund's reputation for being hard to sideboard against still rings true to this day. That is certainly a strength, but forcing attrition is getting harder and harder as combo and aggro decks make greater and more consistent use of tempo and graveyard recursion. But being hard to sideboard against isn't really a strength unique to Jund if you can make your deck more like classic Jund using the sideboard. Stick to aggression in game 1, and then hedge your bets in game 2 and 3 where you will face much more effective removal and permission. With a "free" win in the first game, you are much closer to 50/50 odds for the match, even if you are heavily disadvantaged post-board.
That was my philosophy: make the mainboard the most aggressive version of "Jund" I could, and then design the sideboard to allow for grindier wins.
Tournament Report
Match 1: KCI
This version of KCI was playing Sai mainboard instead of sideboard, along with an island or two and a bunch of baubles instead of the extra chromatic spheres. Talking with the guy later I found out he was playing only 16 lands as well. The build certainly kept me on my toes.
Game 1, I got him close, but he managed to combo off (after a looooong turn of cantriping for an artifact with CMC 3+ to bring Myr Retriever back off of Scrap Trawler's trigger) and win.
Sideboard - Out: Lili's, Pushes, Terminate. In: Leylines, Spellbomb, Grudges, and Stubb.
Game 2, He keeps a bad hand of roughly Trawler, Trawler, KCI, KCI, Stirrings, Chromatic Star, Island. I thoughtseize the star away and he gets mana screwed. A couple Goyfs end things with no issue.
Game 3, I stick a leyline pregame and have a hand full of discard and lands. Draw death's shadow on my turn 1. I almost throw the game at the end when he has assembled enough thopters to kill me on the next turn, on the next turn by fetching and not shocking, but I draw a Street Wraith and Battlerage for exactly enough.
W 2-1, Record 1-0-0.
Match 2: Burn
I come back from the bathroom and the judge gives us 4 minutes of extra "shuffling" time even though we aren't really behind at all. We don't need it given the matchup, but we don't know that yet.... While we're shuffling I ask him what he played against so far and he says "Beat Death's Shadow". I tell him I just beat KCI. He thanks me fore doing so :P
Game 1, Later he will tell me he passed on a slightly slow opening 7 of lands and spells, ends up mulling to 4 cards. I thoughtseize a Goblin Guide, Push the other Goblin Guide, and then IOK an Eidolon. Goyf has been live since turn 2. Game over.
Sideboard - Out: thoughtseizes. In: Brutalities and Grudges.
Game 2, Take an Ensnaring Bridge out of his hand with IOK. That's what the side grudges came in for just in case. This one is close, but he hits me with bolt + boros charm when I'm at 7.
Game 3, Turn 5 I swing for a big lethal attack and he casts his last two spells to boros charms me (giving my shadow +4/+4) and then deflecting palms it. I push it in response. He draws land next and extends the hand.
W 2-1, Record 2-0-0.
Match 3: UW Control
My round 2 is obviously very fast, so I go watch my buddy's match. He is on a janky Jeskai test list, and he's playing against UW Control. Game 3 goes to turns and UW wins. I end up playing against that guy next round. I know this is one of my worst matchups, but haven't played it yet.
Game 1, Game goes back and forth between my threats and his answers. He ends up miracleing Entreat the Angels off the top and gets two tokens. I push one, play a threat, but he has enough land to turn on Colonnade and swing in the air for lethal.
Sideboard - Out: Terminate, Push. In: Thrun, Stubb, Liliana.
Game 2, I make a stupid mistake early by casting traverse when I don't have delirium (thought I had an instant in there, but I didn't...) and have to fetch my swamp instead of the Thrun. Hit twice with an early Gofy, but he lands Teferi and bounces it to the third card in my deck. I draw Street Wraith, hold it, play Bomat courier (to a bunch of shocked looks and some laughs), kill Teferi with it and remove the card above Goyf. Cycle Street Wraith, draw Goyf, play Goyf, pass. He bricks and scoops for game 3.
Game 3, This game is suuuper back and forth. Both of us comment after about how much we enjoyed it and how much each turn swung the advantage. He ends up having an answer for all my threats in the end I don't find Thrun to stabilize. Colonnade wins it.
L 1-2, Record 2-1-0.
Match 4: Amulet Titan
I did not expect to see this deck, and wasn't sure what my matchup against it would be like. Still need more experience against it to get a good feel.
Game 1, He leads on that snake thing that taps to put a land into play. I start on IOK and take a Summoner's Pact, seeing prime time, explore, and walking ballista. He explores, I play Goyf, he plays a 1/1 Ballista as a blocker, I play Death's Shadow and Push the Ballista. Next turn I Decay the snake, game over.
Sideboard - Out: Push, a Traverse or two. In: Stubb, Hazoret, Grudge I think? Like I said, had not planned to see this, wasn't sure exactly what to swap.
Game 2, He takes the same lead, I start on Thoughtseize and take amulet. I see a Pact, Prime Time, and some other stuff. I Street Wraith enough to play Shadow on turn 2, and then get a big swing in on turn 3 and play Goyf. I am holding a Battlerage and wonder if I should have cast it, though it wouldn't have been lethal. Next turn he plays Prime Time, get's a Radiant Fountain and the Garden that makes a 0/1 plant. I attack on the next turn, he block the 5/6 Goyf with Prime Time Shadow with the plant. Proves to be lethal as I Battlerage the Shadow and trample through.
W 2-0, Record 3-1-0.
Match 5: Grixis Shadow
Not much to say going into this one. Feeling pretty good about my record.
Game 1, I take a starting sequence that makes me seem like regular Jund. I play a Goyf, he plays an Angler and shrinks the Goyf. He plays a Shadow, I Traverse for a second Goyf, much to his confusion. I'm pretty confident about my blocks with two 5/6s. He plays another Angler and shrinks the Goyfs down, I am forced to chump. Draw a land, scoop for game 2.
Sideboard - Out: Bomat Couriers, IOKs. In: Hazoret, Leylines, Nihil Spellbomb, Thrun, Lili.
Game 2, I land a leyline pregame, tear up his hand, he never get's going. He finds out I am in fact playing Death's Shadow.
Game 3, He mulls a bunch and I get some discard in. Isn't much of a game here either.
W 2-1, Record 4-1-0.
Match 6: Eldrazi Tron (final swiss round)
We agree to split for top 8 because we're ranked 1st and 3rd in the standings. But he's a cool guy and we play a match for fun anyway. He knows I'm on Traverse Shadow and says he loves the deck. Actually not the first time someone has told me that during the tournament.
Game 1, He plays a few creatures but never speeds up enough to pressure me. I mistakenly push his Matter Reshaper on my Main phase after fetching on his end step. It resolves but doesn't kill it because that's how Push works. It ends up working out in my favor because I now have delirium for Traverse. I get enough on board to pressure a win.
Sideboard - Out: Push, an IOK or two, I should have taken out Bomat, but I didn't. In: Stubb, Grudge. Hazoret.
Game 2, I know Chalice is the killer for this matchup. I start with a slow hand but it has Watery Grave and Stubb. He plays Temple, I play Grave untapped. He goes for Chalice on 1, I Stubb it. He just nodds and mentions how the other Shadow player he played today (my match 5, turns out) played Serum Visions on his turn 1 instead of keeping up Stubb. Game goes longer than I'd like thanks to a few Thought-Knot Seers. He pulls out the win in the end with Walking Ballista pinging me.
Game 3, Similar to Game 2 although Chalice is never cast. He reaches critical mass and plays Endbringer. I have a Goyf, play a shadow, traverse for a shadow and play that one too. He plays Hangarback Walker, which I push on my turn but the Thopter ends up being just enough to keep him alive. Had I drawn Temur Battlerage in either of these game I might have stolen the match, but it was all for fun anyway.
L 2-1. Official Record 4-1-1. Unofficial record 4-2-0.
Anti-climax: the top 8 decides to split the prize evenly rather than play for 3+ more hours.
Conclusion
The deck felt amazing. The speed and explosiveness that classic Jund lacks makes a huge difference, particularly in this meta. The blue splash for Stubb works great, particularly in game 1 where removal is usually more rare and less efficient.
Next post will be after another small test tournament. As a point of order, I am planning to pilot this deck as part of a team at GP Detroit. That was one reason why I chose to splash blue instead of white. White sideboard cards are obviously amazing, but I wanted to leave those for my teammates. Same reason there are no bolts in the 75.
That's all for now.
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